Delay dynamics of pandemic disease COVID-19 with compartmental mathematical modeling

  • Kalyan Das NIFTEM(GoI)
  • M. N. Srinivas Vellore Institute of Technology, Vellore 632014, Tamil Nadu, India.
  • M. H. Kabir ahangirnagar University, Dhaka 1342, Bangladesh.
  • M. O. Gani Jahangirnagar University, Dhaka 1342, Bangladesh.
  • M. H. A. Biswas Khulna University, Khulna 9208, Bangladesh.


In this paper, we propose a compartmental epidemic model which consists of four divisions named as non-quarantined susceptible population (Sn), quarantined susceptible population (Sq), infected population (I), and  recovered or immune population (R) to analyze the dynamics of pandemic disease COVID19 introducing a time delay. We analytically calculate the basic reproduction number of the model to classify epidemic case and endemic case of the pandemic. In order to understand the dynamics of Novel Coronavirus under a time delay, we perform the stability analysis and a Hopf-bifurcation analysis of the proposed model as well. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical findingsthat reflect a real scenario of the transmission of COVID-19.