Modeling conjunctions in low Earth orbits considering drag and oblateness effects

Abstract

Today space debris is considered as one of the most concerning aspect for many space faring nations to put a spacecraft into Earth's orbit. The collision risk from the debris accumulated since last fifty years has doubled after the Chinese anti satellite test. Conjunction analysis provides the proximity studies of collision risk assessment between the space debris objects and active spacecraft for possible prevention, mitigation or maneuver. In this paper we propose an algorithm to model the number of conjunctions for a given spacecraft in low-Earth orbit under the influence of atmospheric drag and Earth's oblateness. A comparative analysis was carried out for the number of conjunctions with and without drag and oblateness considerations.